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2007年1月 From The Korea Herald, January 2nd 2007Washington's rope trick
Commentary
By Chris Gelken
As usual at this time of year people often find themselves reflecting on where they were 12 months ago, and where they expect to be a year from now. Certainly, North Korea's Kim Jong-il is hoping he will be exactly in the same place he is right now. Doubtless the dramatic pictures of his "axis of evil" counterpart Saddam Hussein taking his last few steps to eternity on the gallows probably gave him a little pause.
The events in Baghdad are unlikely to encourage Kim to soften his position, quite the contrary. The controversial rush to judgment, sentencing and execution of Saddam Hussein could possibly play out as the second biggest mistake of the Gulf War -- the actual invasion still ranking as first -- with global ramifications. All of them negative.
Maintaining to the last that he was betrayed by the Americans, the clear message to tyrants and dictators around the world is that you are safe only as long as you remain useful. Depending which conspiracy or geo-political theory you subscribe to, axis of evil poster-boy Kim is probably scrutinizing his "use by date" and his diminishing options.
The bottom line, I suppose, is how much trust he feels he can safely put into the negotiating process to wind back his nuclear ambitions in exchange for a lifting of sanctions and a normalization of diplomatic and economic relations with Washington.
Since the latest round of six-party talks wound up in Beijing just before Christmas, tid-bits of information have been filtering out about what negotiating chips were actually put on the table.
Offering to take North Korea off the list of nations that sponsor terrorism, for example, will open the way for Pyongyang to obtain low interest loans from global financial institutions. Very nice, except most financial institutions are terrified of doing business with North Korea because of the possible repercussions. The offer would have to include guarantees that the U.S. Treasury Department would abandon its policy of trying to isolate North Korea economically. Without this, the offer is empty and meaningless.
Unfortunately for the negotiators, the economic sanctions are a "law enforcement" issue and are not, or so we are told, politically linked or motivated. Consequently, as chief U.S. envoy to the talks, Chris Hill, repeated time and again, they are not on the table.
So where does this leave the North Koreans? They could put their trust in Hill and the U.S. State Department, only to have Treasury work overtime to undermine their economy and destabilize the regime under the guise of "law enforcement" activities. On the other hand, they could hand Hill his hat and coat, and reinforce the general perception that they are a rogue regime unwilling to negotiate. This could lead to even harsher sanctions and a dangerous situation becoming even more dangerous and unpredictable.
Given this scenario, the North is rather caught between a rock and a hard place; damned if you do, damned if you don't. I cannot help but think of the saying: Give someone enough rope and they will hang themselves. Seems to me that while Washington talks about carrots and sticks, in reality it is just playing out rope. Saddam got his. (chrisgelken@heraldm.com) 引用通告此日志的引用通告 URL 是： http://chrisgelken.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!2ED692167BC7EF1F!258.trak 引用此项的网络日志
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